Things change quickly in Formula 1. Liam Lawson knows this better than most. This time last year, his chances of a seat in F1 were next to none. Nyck de Vries was alongside Yuki Tsunoda, and Red Bull’s alternative to the underperforming Dutchman – rather than a youngster from the academy – was Daniel Ricciardo.
However, an injury for Ricciardo in Zandvoort gave Lawson an unlikely chance, and one that he seized with both hands.
Lawson was extremely impressive last season. He jumped into F1 under challenging circumstances but still showcased great speed and maturity. Outqualifying both Red Bull cars in Singapore before scoring points on Sunday was undoubtedly the highlight of his cameo appearances.
When Red Bull elected against giving Lawson a seat at VCARB this year, there was plenty of criticism. However, the assumption was that the Kiwi would eventually have a full-time seat. Indeed, Helmut Marko has confirmed there is a clause in Lawson’s contract allowing him to leave Red Bull if he isn’t offered a seat by 2025.
Unfortunately for the 22-year-old, the reigning Champions are unlikely to give him an offer.
MONTE-CARLO, MONACO – MAY 26: Liam Lawson of New Zealand and Visa Cash App RB looks on in the garage during the F1 Grand Prix of Monaco at Circuit de Monaco on May 26, 2024 in Monte-Carlo, Monaco. (Photo by Rudy Carezzevoli/Getty Images) // Getty Images / Red Bull Content Pool // SI202405260904 // Usage for editorial use only //
NO SPACE AT RED BULL FOR LAWSON
In previous years, Lawson would have almost certainly received an F1 contract. Helmut Marko’s philosophy with young drivers, though often harsh, was to give any talented driver a chance to prove themselves.
However, times have changed at Red Bull. The team once notorious for its ruthless driver selection has a new approach – as evidenced by the very conservative decision to retain Sergio Perez.
With Helmut Marko’s influence in driver selection diminished, young talents have less opportunity.
Christian Horner is happy to maintain the status quo. This starts with keeping Perez at Red Bull, and will likely continue with a contract extension for Daniel Ricciardo. The 34-year-old is significantly slower than Yuki Tsunoda. At this stage, there is no realistic justification for keeping Ricciardo in an outfit meant to be a pipeline to the main team.
Ultimately, actual on-track performance is not the only factor informing Horner’s decisions. If it were, then perhaps Yuki Tsunoda would have been at least considered for a promotion.
Speaking of Tsunoda, the 24-year-old is performing too well for VCARB to drop him. For Liam Lawson, the most realistic scenario where a seat opens up at VCARB is one where Tsunoda grows tired of Red Bull and leaves for 2025.
This is a possible eventuality, although an unlikely one. For now, there are no guarantees or safe bets for Lawson in F1.
IMOLA, ITALY – MAY 17: Yuki Tsunoda of Japan and Visa Cash App RB talks with Laurent Mekies, Team Principal of Visa Cash App RB in the garage during practice ahead of the F1 Grand Prix of Emilia-Romagna at Autodromo Enzo e Dino Ferrari Circuit on May 17, 2024 in Imola, Italy. (Photo by Rudy Carezzevoli/Getty Images) // Getty Images / Red Bull Content Pool // SI202405170671 // Usage for editorial use only //
THE DRIVER MARKET IS UNPREDICTABLE ELSEWHERE
It would be unfair to say that Lawson is without chances for next year. His talent is well recognised, and his efforts from last season should keep him relatively fresh on the minds of team principals.
Unfortunately for the Red Bull reserve, the driver market is very competitive this year. Most midfield teams are looking for experienced drivers with a proven track record of delivering at the highest level. Sauber and Williams are the most obvious examples of teams under this description.
Haas are open to signing a rookie in 2025 – but they will almost certainly give this opportunity to Ferrari junior Oliver Bearman. Similarly, Alpine – if they choose a rookie to replace Ocon – would likely opt for someone like Jack Doohan.
Although each team with a vacancy could be analysed, there is little need. Lawson’s dilemma is clear.
Opportunities are scarce, and his chances of joining the grid in 2025 are increasingly low. Whilst he is still a noteworthy name to follow, the current state of affairs is not encouraging for the highly promising young talent.
