Carlos Sainz was the front-runner to replace Sergio Perez at Red Bull a few months ago. His race victory in Australia only bolstered his already significant market value as speculation intensified in the early rounds. Less than two months later, the Ferrari driver is far away from becoming Max Verstappen’s next teammate.
Despite making the gutsy choice to wait for Christian Horner and Toto Wolff to finalise their driver pairings, it seems neither team will offer Sainz a place.
For Mercedes, it will take several months to finalise their 2025 lineup. Kimi Antonelli remains a very likely possibility, with Toto Wolff speaking in very glowing terms of the 17-year-old. Although Wolff has recently tried to do damage control and manage expectations, the team’s enthusiasm is clear.
The question is when, not if, Antonelli will be in F1.
However, due to Antonelli’s age and inexperience, Mercedes are unsure about their next step. Signing a stop-gap could be an option, though it must be said that Toto Wolff seems adamant about making a big-name signing.
In any case, it is understood that Sainz is no longer in contention for a seat with the Brackley team.
CARLOS SAINZ UNLIKELY TO RECEIVE RED BULL OFFER
Red Bull was the other front-running team on the three-time winner’s radar. For some time, Sainz’s chances with the Austrian outfit were reasonably high. Only a month ago, Helmut Marko insisted that a decision would be made no sooner than the summer break. It was expected that Red Bull would wait to observe if Sergio Perez could take a reasonable step forward from last season.
Somewhat surprisingly, this plan has changed. Despite Perez struggling in recent events – as Ferrari and McLaren take the fight to Red Bull – the reigning Champions are expected to extend the Mexican driver’s contract. Keeping harmony in the garage by retaining a teammate who poses no threat to Verstappen has contributed to this reprioritisation.
For Carlos Sainz, his most realistic options are now further down the order. Audi-owned Sauber is widely tipped as a top landing spot for the 29-year-old. Their interest in Sainz is long-standing, and they are willing to offer a salary that other midfield teams cannot match. Coupled with their manufacturer status, this makes Andreas Seidl’s team a viable possibility.
Elsewhere, Williams has presented themselves to Sainz. Team principal James Vowles has tried to persuade the Spaniard of the Grove-based squad’s long-term potential.
It is unclear exactly where the Ferrari driver will land ahead of 2024. What is hardly in doubt, however, is that Red Bull and Mercedes are increasingly unlikely destinations.
