The Japanese GP was another tough event for Mercedes, currently fourth-fastest behind Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren. The team that dominated the first years of the hybrid era is going through a difficult patch. For perhaps the first time, the team’s value is somewhat diminishing, even in the driver market.
MAX VERSTAPPEN’S SUPERIORITY OVER HIS RIVALS
After just four grands prix, Mercedes boss Toto Wolff has concluded Max Verstappen can be defeated in 2024:
“No one will take Max this year. He is driving incredibly and the car is simply spectacular. You can see it in how he handles the tyres. And basically, this season, the fight will be to be better than the others. This is an ongoing struggle. We hope we can catch McLaren and Ferrari and fight for second position. This is what this year is and what last year was, too.”
MERCEDES’ CHANCES OF RECOVERY
The Mercedes W15 currently remains a difficult single-seater to interpret, and in this sense, the Japanese GP also provided confirmation. Mercedes only managed P7 and P9 last weekend, with relatively uninspiring pace in qualifying and the race. Needless to say, the outlook for the Silver Arrows is not very optimistic – at least not until the 2026 regulations. Toto Wolff admits that not fighting for titles is a difficult adjustment for the team:
“If your expectation is to race for victories and championships, then you can say that we are a bit in a no man’s land. Because Max and Red Bull are much further ahead. It is not satisfactory for any of the teams that are fighting for the other positions. If I were to look at it from a purely sporting point of view, the first position is what matters, not the subsequent ones.
“But that’s the reality we’re facing right now, and we’re trying to make the best of it, that is, beat our direct rivals, while recognizing that someone is simply doing a better job. If we are able to fulfil our ambition of winning races this year, I wouldn’t want to let it go, certainly not next year.
“In 2026, there will be a big reset, which certainly provides the most realistic opportunity for any other team to beat Red Bull. But there is still a season and three-quarters before that, and I don’t want to suffer even more in the next 18 months .”
The hope of making a big step forward remains, especially looking at what its direct rivals have done in recent times:
“Ferrari was not very competitive at the start of the 2023 season. But in the end, it turned the situation around and was second-fastest in the next stage of the championship. We saw the same with McLaren, and it was an even bigger change.
“They couldn’t get through Q1 and, in the end, were regularly among the podium contenders. So I think these swings will continue to happen, we are not able to fight with them at the moment, but we will. This is certainly a realistic goal, much more realistic than challenging Max.”
AFTER HAMILTON: ANTONELLI OR AN EXPERIENCED DRIVER?
Amidst these poor off-track performances, Mercedes needs to find Lewis Hamilton’s replacement. The team’s current slump could push the German team to give Kimi Antonelli his debut in 2025. However, the Mercedes team principal does not rule out the possibility of hiring an experienced driver:
“I think you can look at him from different perspectives. I believe we are in a reconstruction phase. And we must recognize that three years after the introduction of these regulations, we must do things differently than in the past.
“What we think is good in the way we operate and rebuild could mean picking a young driver and giving him an opportunity with less pressure than fighting for the win straight away, or putting a more experienced driver in the car who could help us get out of performance issues we have.”
