Mercedes are quietly collecting important data points for the W15, as they begin their next phase of development. There will be no magic bullet for the Silver Arrows, and catching the top three is unlikely. However, there is growing confidence that James Allison’s technical team knows how to move forward.
For some time, question marks have surrounded the efficacy of the Mercedes wind tunnel. Even now, Aston Martin (who uses the German outfit’s wind tunnel) is seeing a discrepancy between simulation data and the track.
However, the Brackley-based operation is finding a baseline. Although the W15 is still a long way from competing for wins, its behaviours have become more predictable. In addition, the latest updates introduced have generally worked as expected. This is a critical development.
CONSTANT MERCEDES UPGRADES AFTER SPANISH GP
As reported by formu1a.uno previously, Mercedes will bring a near-constant flow of updates to the W15 between the Spanish and Belgian GP. Improvements designed to consolidate the team’s lessons from 2024 are in the pipeline.
The upgrade philosophy from Brackley has already been very aggressive, with a wide array of front wind specifications being introduced in Miami, Imola and Monaco. Three different floors have also been used this season, indicative of the team’s efforts to ‘experiment’. However, the Silver Arrows are confident enough in their understanding of the W15 to pursue a less risky approach.
Mercedes’ update programme will stay aggressive for the foreseeable future as Toto Wolff’s personnel try to make up for lost time.
Although Monaco is something of an outlier, the Principality saw Hamilton and Rusell far happier with the balance of the car. Moving forward, James Allison’s technical team should have better baseline setups to start the weekend. This should help prevent the unpredictable performance we have come to expect in recent times.
Of course, there is no guarantee Mercedes’ updates will have the intended impact. This era of F1 has been characterised by cars that are difficult to keep in the ideal window. Mercedes knows this better than anyone else.
Still, the team will not abandon its 2024 car anytime soon. Although the 2026 regulations are not far away, the team’s engine department in Brixworth is far more active in 2026 preparations than the aerodynamics department. Work will not begin in earnest on 2026 designs until January 1st next year.
Until then, the Silver Arrows will continue their efforts on the W15. Toto Wolff believes Mercedes are on the right trajectory – time will tell if his team has finally cracked the code.
