The first three races of the 2023 Formula 1 championship are behind us, and teams now have three weeks to prepare for the next round in Azerbaijan.
Three races were not a big enough sample to establish the second-fastest team behind the dominant Red Bull, with Aston Martin, Mercedes and Ferrari all showing strengths and weaknesses.
In Bahrain, we saw an AMR23 superior to Mercedes and Ferrari in race trim. In Jeddah, the pace was more closely matched – with the Brackley team overtaking their Maranello rivals, who dropped to fourth place.
Finally, in Australia, the SF-23 was the best-performing car after Red Bull, followed by Aston and Mercedes, although this did not reflect in the final positions.
These three teams are very close in terms of performance, with small details often making the difference. In qualifying, the Scuderia has proved to have more of it than its rivals, while in the race, it often suffered from more severe tyre wear – as well as reliability problems and driver errors. Aston Martin suffers from too much drag, while the Mercedes W14 has a small usage window and rather variable performance.
The numbers speak for themselves: The Red Bull RB19 has improved on all last year’s weaknesses, enhancing its strengths.
In terms of performance, the RB19 is the only clear reference in F1. All the data shows that Newey’s car has no major weaknesses; it is stronger in all types of corners with an average of 164 km/h (-0.89% better than Aston) and 312.9 km/h on the straights (0.52% better than Ferrari).
This means that even if we put together the best qualities of the closest cars, they wouldn’t match the RB19 at present.
What’s more, when using the DRS (drag reduction system), Red Bull’s top speed is unmatched, as if it has an additional 10 hp. The technicians at the Austrian team have no severe tyre wear or thermal degradation issues – irrespective of the asphalt conditions – a symptom of a very strong balance. This means that they have never had to compromise in defining the setup, unlike Ferrari and Mercedes.
The bottom of the RB19 – Illustration Rosario Giuliana
Red Bull has capitalised on its superior pace in the early stages. Max Verstappen has scored an average of 23 points per race out of the 26 available.
That’s 5 more points per race than is typically required to be in a fight for the title. Checo Perez, despite starting from the back in Melbourne, is still in contention, having scored an average of 18 points per race so far.
In the Constructors’ standings, Red Bull is averaging a staggering 41 points per race.
For example, Mercedes had an average of 36 points per race in 2014 (37 in the first 3 races). To summarise, the new Red Bull machine has improved upon its weaknesses from last year – something Christian Horner set out as a target over winter.
Aston Martin searches for improved efficiency to improve, Mercedes needs more downforce
Fernando Alonso has unexpectedly become a regular figure on the podium – unlike Ferrari – who are without a top-three finish in 2023. His average won’t be enough to fight for a world championship, but 15 points per race is an impressive start, to say the least, allowing him to keep both Ferrari and Mercedes drivers at bay.
Aston Martin has gone from rivalling the performance of Alpine and McLaren at the end of 2022 to the most consistent car after Red Bull, far exceeding expectations. The characteristics of the AMR23 are very clear.
If the intention of Aston’stechnicians was to find the maximum aerodynamic load on the tyres, without sacrificing tyre wear, they succeeded.
The car has an average deficit of 6.2 km/h on the straights but is the closest car to the RB19 in the corners, with a gap of only 1.5 km/h.
For this reason, the team’s updates will focus on improving the efficiency of the AMR23, although the use of the Mercedes gearbox – as explained – limits the efficiency of the diffuser and forces the Silverstone team to use larger rear wings, which increase resistance to progress.
Specifically, their use of the rear axle (gearbox-rear suspension-Power Unit) produced in Brackley makes the Aston Martin the car Mercedes looks to the most, if not as a long-term target, at least in terms of immediate progress.
The W14 has substantially improved its average straight-line speed over the W13, as it now sits just -2.6km/h behind Red Bull while maintaining decent cornering balance, losing just 0.2km/h to Aston Martin.
Aerodynamic changes and updates being developed should strengthen their generally decent start, at least in the medium term.
The Mercedes Power Unit finally matches the power produced by Honda and Ferrari, especially on the W14, but the serious reliability problem suffered by George Russell in Australia will give Mercedes some headaches.
Ferrari: more consistency in performance between qualifying and the race in Australia. In Maranello, they remain convinced of the potential of the SF-23.
After the first three races, Ferrari returned to Maranello with contradictory thoughts. The SF-23 is not at the level they hoped for, but the standings do not reflect the true pace of this car.
In Bahrain, a reliability problem deprived Charles Leclerc of a podium finish or – with the return of Fernando Alonso – at worst, fourth place finish. In Jeddah, the race was influenced by the penalty sustained by Leclerc, which, with Hard tyres, was below par.
In Australia, however, both drivers were involving incidents, leaving Ferrari empty-handed – even if the Scuderia has asked for the right of review to regain fourth position for Carlos Sainz.
The balance is, therefore, largely insufficient for these first three rounds, but the last race has hinted at positive signs that the team takes home.
This gave more load to the car making it more linear and consistent with the simulator data, helping the technicians to understand it better and giving them the basis for the development of this season.
Up to now, we have seen a multi-faceted SF-23: exceeding expectations in qualifying but suffering in the race – partly due to set-up issues, which widen the gap to Red Bull.
The average gap per km in qualifying was 0.057″ in Bahrain, 0.025″ in Jeddah and 0.041 in Melbourne. In race pace respectively, the gaps were 0.154”, 0.159” and 0.043”.
These figures do not lie, confirming the improvement seen in Australia, despite more conservative race management by not only Red Bull but also Hamilton and Alonso, who partly ‘falsify’ this comparison. Still, the progress of the SF-23 is clear.
In Maranello, the preparation work towards Baku continues unabated. After Carlos Sainz spent last week in the simulator, it will be up to Charles Leclerc to test the various set-up possibilities.
Some correlation problems have also been resolved thanks to the contribution of the new floor, but Baku and the subsequent races will be important for confirming this progress and testing the validity of the updates being worked on.
The engineers remain confident, even if they already face a three-month development delay, that they can unlock the potential of the SF-23 – which they thought would be more than a second faster than the F1-75 in the simulator.
The main problem is to introduce updates to give Ferrari consistency in their long runs. After correcting the error that caused the aerodynamic instability in the SF-23 from the Bahrain tests, the gap should close quickly.
It might appear unrealistic, yet in Maranello, they are thinking of returning to second strength already from Baku.
However, as previously reported, the first real target is the end of May, when the team will evaluate the current aerodynamic concept of the SF-23.
Ferrari will asses if it makes sense to continue developing the car or if it will be necessary to review the development plans for 2023 and – more importantly – for the next season.
Pirelli 2023: not everyone managed to make the most of the new tires.
